Welcome to the UK Local Covid Map!

This interactive map visualises the historical and predicted future developments of the Covid-19 epidemic across local authorities in the UK.

We use a statistical model to estimate time-varying reproduction numbers (R) from UK government data on daily reported cases in each lower tier local authority (LTLA). Using these estimates, our model also produces predictions of how the number of cases will rise/fall in the next few weeks. These predictions are made by the model assuming no change in the circumstances affecting transmission rates and testing in each local authority.

We emphasize that no one knows the true reproduction numbers, and we estimate them from data we do have using statistical models. It is important to treat a model’s estimates with caution and be aware of its limitations. Different models to estimate R may give slightly different estimates. Do look at estimates and predictions given by other groups at Cambridge MRC Biostatistics Unit, LSHTM CMMID and Imperial College London.

This website and the method behind it were developed by a team in the OxCSML research group at the University of Oxford’s Department of Statistics, along with a number of other collaborators.

The R number roughly measures how fast Covid-19 is spreading in society. In the map, we write “Rt” instead of just “R”. The “t” indicates “time”. We do this because the number is not constant but can go up or down over time, depending on how fast Covid-19 is spreading at a given time.

You can search for or click on a local authority to see its statistics. The blue parts of the graphs show the number of reported Covid-19 cases historically along with the corresponding estimates for Rt. The grey parts of the graphs are future predictions made by the model. The grey parts include this week, as the most recent case numbers are incomplete. For the cases plot, the thin blue line shows the actual number of daily reported cases while the thick lines and the light and dark shaded regions show the median and 95% and 50% credible intervals respectively, as predicted by our model. For the Rt plot, the thick lines and the light and dark shaded regions show the median and 95% and 50% credible intervals respectively, for the inferred weekly Rt.

Definitions for terms used on this website:

• For predictions, the notation X [Y,Z] means that the median is X while Y and Z gives the lower and upper endpoints of the 95% credible interval. That is the model believes that with 95% chance the interval [Y,Z] will contain the corresponding quantity, and there is equal chance that the corresponding quantity will be above and below X.
• Case is an infected individual who has tested positive on the given specimen date, under either Pillar 1 or Pillar 2 of the UK’s testing strategy.
• Rt denotes the reproduction number at a given point in time: how many secondary cases on average will be infected by a single primary case. Rt greater than 1 means that the size of the epidemic is increasing exponentially, and less than 1 means it is shrinking exponentially.
• Cases (per 100k) denotes the weekly number of cases per 100,000 population size. For past weeks, this number comes from historical weekly reported number of cases under Pillars 1+2. For future weeks, this is predicted by the model.
• P(Rt>1) denotes the probability (assigned by the model) that Rt is larger than 1 given the observed case counts.